The fourth and final part of the report on the online conference of Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba with Central Asian journalists on September 7, 2022.
Questions from Kazakh journalist Karlygash Ezhenova concerned information circulating online that “Putin had instructed the development of a revanchist invasion plan, with Moldova, Georgia, or Kazakhstan named as possible options.” The journalist said: “Many people here share the view that Ukraine must win, but at the same time it is believed that a military invasion of any other country is unrealistic, because Russia is no longer capable of affording another war. How can you comment on this? And in particular, are scenarios of hybrid aggression being considered by some experts? And the second question: how do you view Tokayev’s initiative to invite the leaders of Central Asia, as well as representatives of Russia and China, to a meeting?”
Dmytro Ivanovych Kuleba:
Russia is undoubtedly not capable of waging another full-scale war comparable in size to what it is waging now, the war currently taking place in Ukraine. That is a fact.
But let me return to what I was saying. You must be sure of two things. First, that if Russia physically invades your territory, your armed forces will be capable of forcing Russia, at a minimum, to get bogged down in war. You should not assess the strength of your army at parades, but realistically understand — is your country’s army capable of stopping Russia, the Russian army?
And second: how ready is the people, the entire population, to rise up and fight the occupier in one form or another?
If these two factors are present — if you have a strong army and a population that does not accept the occupier — then Russia will be forced to escalate the scale of the war. And it truly does not have the capacity for that. But for a localized destabilizing operation, Russia will always find the resources, do not doubt that (here and below emphasized by Yep.uz).
As for plans of seizure. Yes, I am sure that all plans have long existed and are kept in the General Staff of the Russian Federation. The plan for Georgia has already been partially implemented in 2008. No one should have any doubts (one should not think — Yep.uz) that Russia has no appetite for territory and influence in your countries. All plans have been written.
The third element is hybrid warfare. Of course, everything begins with internal destabilization, with attempts to shake things from within. Look at what is happening now in Moldova — the issue of Gagauzia is being stirred up. Out of nowhere, Foreign Minister Lavrov appears and starts demanding more rights for the Gagauz.
Local, so to speak, elites begin to pick up Russian demands and amplify them. Therefore, everything starts with internal destabilization. And perhaps I will sound too harsh, but as long as Russian television operates in your countries, people will watch it, and sit on VKontakte, it will be easy to stir things up. It will be quite easy to destabilize society.
In this, the Russians are good, credit where it is due. They do propaganda much better than they wage war. That is a fact. Although I do not underestimate Russia’s ability to fight. It is a difficult enemy, I tell you honestly, a difficult one, but quite beatable. And we are proving this on the battlefield.
As for invitations. I have already answered this question, that is, our position is that we believe Putin has no place at any international forums at all. But if other states think otherwise, that is their sovereign right to think so.
Just know, you should always remember that when you invite Putin over, he always looks around and imagines that all of this actually belongs to him, and this excites his imagination.
Adil Turdukulov from Kyrgyzstan asked another question, this time about labor export. “This is precisely the factor used to make us stay silent about Ukraine,” Adil said. “After Ukraine’s victory, you will need labor resources. Will it become an alternative destination for attracting our labor resources for rebuilding Ukraine’s destroyed cities?”
Dmytro Ivanovych Kuleba:
Well, first of all, I wish for all of you that the economies in your countries reach a level where people do not have to go abroad in search of wages, money for subsistence, and for the development of themselves and their families.
We are talking about the same thing. I simply understand your pain, because we have the same situation. It’s just that our labor migration was divided into two flows — a smaller part to Russia, a larger part to the European Union. But I fully understand what is being discussed, and therefore, first of all, I wish success to your countries, so that everything is good, so that you are strong, economically developed, people stay at home and your nations grow stronger rather than lose people who go abroad. Families are breaking apart. These are all social consequences of labor migration.
Of course, I will tell you frankly, we all understand perfectly well that part of those seven million — that is how many Ukrainian citizens have left so far — just imagine, 7 million people left in less than three months… That is, they all went westward, some were forcibly taken by the Russians to Russia, some went to relatives in Russia — that also exists, let us not deny it.
If you have 7 million people abroad, you understand that not all of them will return, even if the war ends tomorrow. We see opinion polls — everyone declares readiness to return, the absolute majority says they want to return when the war ends.
But now people will begin to settle down, work, children have gone to school. We understand — these are all real people. And this means two things. First, Ukraine’s human capital has significantly decreased. Second, there will be reconstruction, there will be a tremendous need for human capital. And therefore, of course, if citizens of your countries, companies from your countries want to come to Ukraine, help rebuild it, earn money, start a new life here or later return home, we will only welcome it.
Once again, unlike Russia, we are not chauvinists, not anti-Semites, and not xenophobes. Therefore, we always welcome representatives of other nations, peoples, and states. We are building a space of freedom here, a free and successful country, and to build it, nationality does not matter. So we will be glad.
I was very glad about this communication. I will boast — it was my idea to speak specifically with journalists from Central Asia. My vanity is satisfied. I believe the communication was successful. I wish you all the best, and I hope we will talk again, and someday meet in person. Take care.
This material is part of a series: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4