In recent days, two major topics have dominated conversations in Uzbekistan — the record appreciation of the national currency and the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran.
As the U.S. dollar rate fell to 12,559 soums — its lowest level since July 2024 — both the public and businesses are increasingly curious about the sustainability of this trend and how a potential regime change in Iran might affect Uzbekistan’s economy and currency.
📈 Why Is the Soum Strengthening?
Since the beginning of 2025, the Uzbek soum has appreciated by nearly 2.8% against the U.S. dollar — a rare occurrence in a region historically prone to devaluation. Experts cite several key reasons:
- A sharp increase in export revenues, primarily from gold.
- Record-high remittances, especially during the spring months.
- The Central Bank’s sterilization of foreign currency inflows to avoid overheating the domestic market.
- Moderate inflation (8.6%) and a high key interest rate (14%), making savings in soums attractive.
Additionally, growing trust in the national currency has reduced demand for U.S. dollars among the public and depositors.
🔥 Iran on the Brink of Change: Why It Matters
Meanwhile, global geopolitical instability is intensifying. One of the major flashpoints is Iran, where ongoing protests, a crisis of confidence, and international pressure have sparked discussions about a possible political regime change.
What could happen if changes occur in Tehran?
- Easing or lifting of sanctions → increased oil and gas exports
- Decline in global oil and gold prices (if stability is achieved)
- Opening of new transport corridors through Iran for Central Asia
- Influx of foreign investment into the region
Collectively, these developments could significantly reshape the economic landscape and currency flows in Uzbekistan.
⚖️ How Could Iran Impact the Dollar Exchange Rate in Uzbekistan?
📉 Falling Oil Prices — A Plus for Uzbekistan
As a net fuel importer, Uzbekistan would benefit from cheaper oil, reducing foreign currency outflows for energy and improving the balance of payments. This would strengthen the soum and ease pressure on the dollar.
🛣️ Improved Logistics — Increased Currency Inflows
If Iran opens its borders to cargo and investments, new logistics routes between China and Europe may pass through Uzbekistan. This would generate additional foreign exchange revenue from transit and boost infrastructure development.
🪙 Cheaper Gold — A Hit to Exports
Stabilization in the Middle East could lead to a drop in global gold prices. Gold is one of Uzbekistan’s top exports, so lower prices could reduce foreign exchange earnings and weaken the soum.
⚠️ Turbulent Transition — Temporary Panic
If regime change in Iran is accompanied by chaos, violence, or international intervention, markets may shift toward safe-haven assets. Demand for the U.S. dollar could spike, and the soum might temporarily weaken due to regional instability.
📊 Scenario Analysis
| Iran Scenario | Impact on the Soum | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate power transition, sanctions lifted | ↗ Strengthening | Cheaper oil, new logistics opportunities |
| Sharp conflict, military crisis | ↘ Weakening | Rising USD demand, capital flight |
| Regime status quo | ↔ Neutral | Continuation of current conditions |
| Sanctions + escalation | ↘ Weakening | Pressure on exports and regional trade routes |
🧭 What Should the Public Do?
In the short term:
- Savings in soums remain profitable with a stable exchange rate and high returns (up to 20% per annum).
- However, ignoring external risks is unwise — holding part of savings in foreign currency is a rational choice.
In the long term:
- Monitor geopolitical developments, especially in Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China.
- Diversify assets — deposits, bonds, multi-currency portfolios.
- Avoid focusing solely on exchange rates — consider yield and liquidity as well.
📝 Conclusion
Uzbekistan’s currency market still depends not only on internal macroeconomic factors but also on external geopolitical dynamics such as the situation in Iran.
A regime change in Tehran could present both an economic opportunity for Central Asia and a source of currency volatility.
For now, the soum appears stable. But in a world where oil, gold, and trade routes are shaped by gunfire, even a strong currency can falter. When looking at the dollar rate today, remember — it reflects not only economics but also geopolitics.
📌 Disclaimer
This analytical material is based on publicly available economic and geopolitical data as of June 2025.
The information presented is not an investment recommendation, guaranteed forecast, or official position of any government entity.
The author is not liable for financial decisions made on the basis of this article. For investment-related decisions, it is advised to consult certified financial advisors.